Dive Brief:
- The U.S. healthcare system finds itself on the brink of a workforce crisis, with a new report predicting the national clinician shortage will nearly double by 2040.
- But it's not too late to stem the shortage, according to an analysis from Covista, a healthcare education company. With the right mitigation strategies, such as workforce investment and using AI to drive administrative efficiency, the healthcare industry can close 92% of the projected workforce gap.
- Easing the healthcare provider shortage will be essential not only for industry leaders but also for patients, who stand to see higher costs and longer wait times should the shortage continue to grow.
Dive Insight:
Healthcare is in a workforce shortage right now, with 2026 figures from the National Institute for Health Care Management showing that over 108 million people reside in primary care provider shortage areas. Factors like burnout and an aging workforce exacerbate the issue as more workers leave the industry.
Healthcare shortages already cost patients $430 per year in overtime pay, temporary staffing costs and higher emergency department volumes when patients can’t book timely primary or specialty care. This figure is projected to rise to around $1,250 per person by 2040 if the workforce shortage continues without intervention, according to Covista.
“This shortage is real, and Americans are feeling it,” Steve Beard, chairman and CEO of Covista, said in a press release. “We need to invest in capacity for the people who want to do this work, and pair that with innovations in care delivery.”
The healthcare industry can reduce the projected workforce gap by 7% by investing in non-traditional students, such as adult learners or those seeking a career change. Investing in more training capacity by opening more slots in medical education programs could also close a quarter of the projected gap.
Healthcare must also take care of its existing workforce, especially younger workers who have expressed interest in leaving their roles. Reducing burnout and creating incentives to stay in their current roles could improve clinician retention and mitigate around 25% of the projected 2040 gap, according to Covista.
The industry might also consider supporting workers by investing in the technologies and care models that can drive efficiency, according to Michael Betz, chief growth and innovation officer at Covista and president of Walden University.
According to the analysis, AI tools that automate and streamline administrative work could close up to 37% of the projected clinician shortage. However, leaders must be aware that these same technologies could also flag care gaps and improve access, leading to more patients booking appointments and adding to provider workloads. All said, this could offset gains by around 18%.
Meanwhile, focusing on primary and preventive care could reduce the projected shortage by 13%. Right now, healthcare is mostly defined by a “sick care” model in which providers primarily respond when patients get sick, rather than preventing them from falling ill in the first place. This creates undue strain on an already overburdened workforce — a focus on preventive care could help alleviate workforce shortages.
Despite the promise of healthcare innovation, mitigating the projected provider shortage must focus on people, not technology, Betz noted.
“Technology can offer efficiencies; it can't do the job. Our focus has to be building tools that free up our clinicians to do the thing they love the most: caring for patients,” Betz said.
Closing the projected healthcare workforce shortage could support better outcomes, including a 20% reduction in wait times for specialist care. Solving the nursing shortage could save nearly 100,000 lives by 2040, Covista said, and closing the physician gap could add more than 6 months to the average life expectancy.
