Dive Brief:
- The global health insurance market is predicted to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.14% from 2016-2020, according to a new analysis from Technavio.
- The analysis is based on present conditions and the growth prospects of the market.
- Among the key drivers in the predicted market growth identified in the report were the increasing size of the aging population and the increase in life expectancy.
Dive Insight:
While the analysis makes predictions about the growth prospects of the overall world markets, much about the future of the U.S. market will be based on the outcome of the upcoming presidential election and whatever health insurance policy changes follow.
Whether Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump takes the win, market fluctuation can be expected. Clinton's proposals around tweaking the ACA are predicted to increase coverage by 400,000 to 9.6 million people. On the other hand, Trump's plan to repeal the ACA is projected to decrease coverage by 15.6 million to 25.1 million people.
Even though the report points toward the aging population as a major driver in health insurance market growth for the next several years, other indicators suggest that drive could potentially be tempered in time given recent debate that suggests human longevity has already peaked. The market could also eventually see an impact from reversals in health gains due to factors including obesity, drug abuse, and suicide.
In addition to aging and other market drivers, the Technavio report looks at market challenges including the cost associated with health insurance, which has certainly been felt in the U.S. Recent research suggests the trend toward narrow networks is likely to be key in efforts toward driving insurance costs down far enough to incentivize further growth in enrollment.