Dive Brief:
- The Republican assault against the Affordable Care Act, which has continued unabated for six years since the controversial law was enacted, is unlikely to succeed if Hillary Clinton wins the presidency, House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) suggested Monday to conservative radio host Jay Weber.
- Ryan's new stance could prove a pivotal moment for the healthcare law if the House leader stops leading a divisive charge to repeal it, The Huffington Post reported.
- After being unable to accomplish that mission under Obama, Ryan appeared to accept it would continue to be unfeasible to to overturn the law under another pro-ACA Democratic president.
Dive Insight:
As speaker of the House, Ryan's position on the ACA holds significant power – assuming he himself maintains his power. Political "chatter" reported in The Huffington Post suggests conservatives have floated the possibility of opposing Ryan in January if he seeks to maintain the position, though no formal effort has been visible.
Certainly, if Trump is elected and moves for an immediate repeal as promised, the matter is moot. However, a Clinton presidency would be expected to build on and "tweak" Obamacare in ways that would further roil its conservative critics, including controversial plans to add a "public option" that would compete with private insurers.
Under either a Trump or Clinton scenario, healthcare reform is in for change, and the real question is how painful and divisive, or not, that change will be.
The possibilities range across two extremes. Trump's promise to repeal the ACA would roll back coverage for an estimated 20 million people who have gained it so far and replace it with as-yet unspecified plans. Meanwhile, Clinton's proposed plans aim to expand and improve the law, though those plans would depend on achieving both partisan and bi-partisan support, which are likely to remain a tall order.