Dive Brief:
- Health and Human Services Secretary Sylvia M. Burwell announced Thursday the agency expects 10 million people to be covered through ACA health plans by the end of 2016--a projection that estimates more than one out of every four remaining uninsured, marketplace-eligible consumers will sign up during the next enrollment period.
- Given HHS estimates 9.1 million people will be enrolled at the end of this year, the projected increase for 2016 is only 900,000.
- The HHS projection contrasts with one released by the Congressional Budget Office in March, which suggested 21 million people would be insured via the exchanges by that time.
Dive Insight:
The difference between the HHS and CBO estimates comes down to the CBO assuming more employers would have stopped offering benefits by now in favor of sending employees to the exchanges, Richard Frank, HHS assistant secretary for planning and evaluation, announced on a media conference call. The CBO report also assumed more people who buy their own health plans would use the exchanges to do so.
Frank said enrollment can be expected to reach that number but that it will take more time.
"We're not seeing evidence of having plateaued. What we are seeing evidence of is rather than reaching the plateau in three years, as CBO projects, we are seeing a much longer path to the longer-term equilibrium for this market," he was quoted by The Huffington Post.
HHS notes the remaining uninsured will be more difficult to reach, and some experts suggest the lag in enrollment raises questions about the effectiveness of the ACA and whether subsidies are sufficient to make the plans affordable.