Dive Brief:
- The estimated cost of the Affordable Care Act has been revised downward for the years of 2015 to 2025 in a new report from the Congressional Budget Office.
- Part of the reduction is due to the CBO's belief that 8 million fewer people will gain health insurance from the law, compared to its earlier projections.
- The report also anticipates health insurance premiums to be lower than previously estimated by 10%. It suggests there will be higher premium increases from 2016 through 2018, but that increases will be lower beginning in 2019.
Dive Insight:
The latest projections could help the case for the sustainability of the ACA, though the report did not factor in any potential impacts the King v. Burwell case could have on subsidies.
The report predicts that as the ACA stands now, subsidies for health plans purchased on the exchanges will cost $849 billion in the years 2016 through 2025. That's 20% less than previously estimated.
Furthermore, the CBO says that during the next four years, the cost of ACA coverage expansion will be 29% less than what it estimated in 2010 when the ACA first became law. By 2019, the ACA will cost one-third less than what was projected in 2010.
The report predicts that by 2025, 25 million people will have ACA health insurance (an increase from the last prediction of 24 million). The report adds that by that time, about 25 million people will still be uninsured because they have either declined insurance, live in states that did not expand Medicaid, or are undocumented immigrants.