Dive Brief:
- If the House v. Burwell case goes against the ACA, the result could be an additional $47 billion in federal spending over 10 years, and a shrinking of the marketplaces, according to a new Urban Institute study.
- The lawsuit would stop some payments to insurers that opponents deem inappropriate because Congress had not specifically appropriated funds for them.
- Stopping those payments could force insurers to raise premiums, and therefore require the government to increase subsidies, the study noted.
Dive Insight:
Although it would cause disruption and readjustment, the case would be unlikely to undermine the ACA in any meaningful way.
The study finds ACA supporters could see a ruling favoring the Republican lawsuit as beneficial because it assumes while insurers would build their higher costs into their premiums for silver plans, subsidies would increase across the board.
As a result, an estimated 400,000 individuals would take the increased financial assistance as an opportunity to buy an ACA health plan and could do so at the gold level.
Overall, the stakes are not very high, Linda Blumberg, co-author of the study, told The Hill.
A ruling from a U.S. District Court is expected mid-year, and an appeal is likely either way, The Hill reported.